Fireeye 2016年年报简析
Fireeye股价跌成了翔,公司股票从峰值近100刀跌到了现在10刀左右。Fireeye多年持续亏损,二级市场的投资者也逐渐失去了信心,股价也应声倒地。2017年2月3日Fireeye发布了2016年年报,次日股价大跌15.73%。今天我们一起来分析解读Fireeye最新一期的年报,是抄底?还是继续观望?
厂商简介:
FireEye has invented a purpose-built, virtual machine-based security platform that provides real-time threat protection to enterprises and governments worldwide against the next generation of cyber attacks. These highly sophisticated cyber attacks easily circumvent traditional signature-based defenses, such as next-generation firewalls, IPS, anti-virus, and gateways. The FireEye Threat Prevention Platform provides real-time, dynamic threat protection without the use of signatures to protect an organization across the primary threat vectors and across the different stages of an attack life cycle. The core of the FireEye platform is a virtual execution engine, complemented by dynamic threat intelligence, to identify and block cyber attacks in real time. FireEye has over 5,000 customers across 67 countries, including more than 940 of the Forbes Global 2000.
2016年年报摘要:
Fireeye营业收入简析:
Fireeye的主营业务包括认购事项及服务和产品两个部分,认购事项及服务增长38.36%(占总营业收入的78.73%),产品销售收入下降29.87%(占总营业收入的21.27%),由此可见Kevin Mandia的掌舵对业务方向的影响。
Fireeye营收地域分布情况,美国占比小幅下降到68.42%,但仍然是收入的主要来源;欧洲和中东占14.32%,亚太及日本占13.34%,其他地区占3.91%;由此可见,Fireeye正在全球市场寻求增长。
Fireeye估值分析:
由于Fireeye一直亏损,PE为负值,使用EV/EBITDA来衡量。息税稅分摊前利润一直为负值,如下表所示。随着公司市值的不断下降,EV/EBITDA比率一直在收窄。
Fireeye的PB均值从13年854下滑到目前2.58,当前Fortinet的PB约为7,Checkpoint的PB约为5。
市销率PS均值已从13年55下滑到目前3.87,当前Fortinet的PS约为5,Checkpoint的PS约为8.5。
管理层讨论与分析摘要:
1.“Since mid-2016 we have focused on two strategic initiatives – rightsizing our cost structure and evolving our product portfolio – and we made great progress on both fronts in the fourth quarter,”
2.“We believe the innovations we introduced in the second half of 2016, together with the announcement of our Helix platform in November, will enable FireEye to transform security operations and lower security cost of ownership for organizations of all sizes,”
3.Mike Berry, FireEye chief financial officer since 2015, is leaving FireEye to pursue another opportunity, andFrank Verdecanna, FireEye senior vice president of finance and chief accounting officer, has been appointed executive vice president and chief financial officer.
4.The company has also expanded its sales leadership team by hiring Kevin Taylor to lead the company’s EMEA sales organization. Kevin will report to Bill Robbins, who joined FireEye in November as executive vice president of worldwide sales.
5.“I believe our new sales leadership will help stabilize the field, increase productivity, and ensure proper capacity, training and enablement in 2017.
6.The creation of the Global Services and Intelligence business unit under John Watters consolidates our consulting, security operations and threat intelligence groups in a single unified organization uniquely qualified to efficiently execute on our mission of relentlessly protecting our customers using intelligence and expertise from the front lines.”
7.David DeWalt, who became Executive Chairman of the Board when he stepped down as FireEye CEO in June 2016, has resigned from the company.
小编简评:
起初,Fireeye确实指出了传统安全产品的一大缺陷,基于签名的防御不能有效抵御0day漏洞攻击。Fireeye一方面强调MVX的技术先进性,同时爆料中国大炒APT(高级持续性威胁)概念赚眼球。2012年请来了前McAfee公司的CEO David DeWalt执掌公司。IPO之初,Fireeye可谓风光一时,资本也趋之若鹜,迅速超炒高Fireeye的股价,在2014年3月市值一度达到130亿美元左右。David DeWalt执政期间先后收购了Mandiant和iSight等公司,完成企业的业务布局。一切看上去都是那么美好,可就是财报不给力,连续4年亏损。公司的营业收入增长率也从上市前近的150%跌到了今天的14.63%。Fireeye正式跌落神坛,自己也变成了一家“传统”的网络安全公司。
小编从以下几个方面简要分析Fireeye跌落神坛的原因:
1.业务定位问题;
Fireeye虽然找到传统安全产品的一大缺陷,也确实引领出一块新的市场, 只是这个市场规模不足以支撑Fireeye的高估值。The Redicati Group发布的市场预测2016年APT解决方案市场规模为26亿美金,到2020年约73亿美金。假设当年Fireeye将产品包装为新一代网关呢?当然,这就是另一个故事了。
2.竞争对手跟进迅速;
在Fireeye推出APT解决方案以后,安全厂商Checkpoint,PaloAlto Networks,Fortinet,TrendMicro等纷纷跟进,先后推出各自的高级威胁解决方案。然而,Fireeye的方案并未展现出市场统治力,APT概念就这样烂大街了。
3.运营管理能力不足
一方面公司营业收入增速逐年降低,从12年的147%下降到16年的14.63%,这显然不是一个高成长性公司应有的指标;另一方面,营业开支中销售费用连续3年超过4亿美金(占营业总收入60%左右),研发费用将近3亿(占营业收入近40%),管理费用连续3年均为1亿多刀。上市4年合计亏损16亿刀。
最后聊聊Fireeye的价值和挑战。经过几年的运营,Fireeye已经成为了一家全球知名的网络安全公司,公司品牌在行业内还是颇具影响力。手里拿着美国国土安全部发的Security SAFETY Act certification御赐招牌,还是很牛X的。
Fireeye的“服务+产品”的业务模型已经明确。评估准备是服务业务,主要包括先行测试、评估和违反防备;检测预防部分主要是产品业务,包括网络安全,邮件安全、终端安全和威胁分析平台等产品;分析响应部分也是服务业务,包括事件响应,取证调查和安全协同。主打“Fireeye as a Service”和“Threat Intelligence”,结合营业收入构成,不难看出Fireeye已经明确定位为一家以服务为核心业务的安全公司。前Mandiant的CEO Kevin Mandia正式上位,不禁让人联想到底是Fireeye收购了Mandiant,还是Mandiant收购了Fireeye。
在最新年报的管理层分析和讨论中Kevin也提到两大战略“优化成本结构” 和“发展产品组合”。“优化成本结构”是未来两到三年的关键任务,但从16年年报中并未看到此项工作的效果,相关数据指标的转好很可能是去年年中Fireeye裁员的结果。Fireeye的营业收入增长率已经掉到了14.63%,新的产品组合如果不能在市场上取得突破,恐怕只有继续裁员或资本输血了。Fireeye也正式进入困境反转股的观察名单。
不赚钱的企业是不道德的!
文章来源于:数说安全 作者:仙儿